The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has projected that the peak of the rainy season in Bali will occur between January and February 2026. According to data from the Bali Climatology Station, located in Jembrana Regency, approximately 45 percent, or nine of the province’s seasonal zones, are expected to reach their rainfall peak in January 2026.
“As many as 55 percent of the 20 seasonal zones will enter the peak of the rainy season in February 2026,” said Head of the Bali Climatology Station BMKG Aminudin Al Roniri when contacted in Denpasar, Thursday.
The regions forecasted to experience the peak in January include northern and eastern Buleleng, northern, central, and southern Tabanan, as well as north, central, and south Badung, and northern, central, and southern Gianyar. The peak rainy period is also expected in central Bangli, north of Denpasar City, as well as in central, eastern, and south Karangasem, and on Nusa Penida.
Eleven Other Zones to Reach Rainfall Peak in February
BMKG also reported that 11 seasonal zones in Bali are projected to reach their peak rainfall in February 2026. These areas include the entire Jembrana Regency, as well as western, southern, central, northern, and southeastern Buleleng, western and Tabanan north, and west and south Karangasem.
In addition, the February peak will cover southern, northern, central, and eastern Bangli, northern Klungkung, and northern Badung. This means that all regions of Bali are expected to experience their rainy season peak within the two months.
Most Regions to Experience Normal Rainfall Levels
Overall, rainfall characteristics across Bali’s 20 seasonal zones are forecasted to be normal in 15 zones, representing about 75 percent of the province. Meanwhile, the remaining five zones are expected to experience above-normal rainfall.
The zones with predicted above-normal rainfall include northern and eastern Buleleng, central Tabanan, central Badung, southern Bangli, western and north Karangasem, southern Gianyar, and Nusa Penida Island. These conditions suggest the potential for higher rainfall intensity in several localized areas.
Onset of Rainy Season Begins Gradually from September 2025
According to BMKG, only one seasonal zone in Bali had entered the beginning of the rainy season as of September 2025. Nine other zones are expected to follow in October 2025, while the remaining ten zones are forecasted to begin in November 2025.
When compared to the long-term average from the 1991–2020 period, six zones are predicted to start the rainy season at around the same time as the historical average. Another six zones are projected to begin earlier than usual, while six others are expected to start later than average.
“Local governments, related institutions, and the community are expected to be vigilant and anticipatory of the potential impact of the rainy season, especially areas prone to floods and landslides,” said Aminudin Al Roniri.
BMKG Continues to Monitor Weather Developments in Bali
BMKG, through its Bali Climatology Station, continues to monitor weather patterns and rainfall developments across the province. This ongoing observation aims to provide accurate information and ensure preparedness for the 2025–2026 rainy season.
With the rainy season peak projected for January to February 2026, the agency emphasizes the importance of maintaining readiness based on the official forecasts provided by BMKG.
